Former Cowboys star Dez Bryant isn't a fan of analytics, at least not when it pertains to one specific scenario, and that exact situation came up during Dallas' stunning 24-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. With the Cowboys trailing 24-10 in the fourth quarter, Dak Prescott engineered a 99-yard drive that culminated with an 18-yard touchdown pass to George Pickens. After the score, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer decided to go for two, but the Cowboys came up short.
Why would you go for two down by eight? Cowboys fans were booing before they even lined up. pic.twitter.com/AG0K3Re0lH Bryant shared his thoughts about the decision on social media, and he definitely didn't agree with Schottenheimer's choice to bypass an easy extra point. Dez better get used to the idea of the Cowboys doing this, because if this same situation comes up in the future, Dallas will definitely be going for two, and Schottenheimer made that clear after the game.
"That's our philosophy," Schottenheimer said via Patrik Walker of the team's official website. "When you're down 14, especially with our offense, because when you get it, you have a chance to go and win the game, and you make it a six-point game." Bryant was clearly frustrated with the call, but Schottenheimer's decision came down to numbers, so let's break down both sides of the coin. This all comes down to analytics.
The math says it makes more sense to go for two when you score a touchdown while trailing by 14. The main reason teams do this is so they know what they need to get sooner rather than later. A two-point conversion has about a 50% chance of success if you look at the historical rate, while an extra point has about a 97% success rate.
Since the Cowboys needed two scores to tie or take the lead, Schottenheimer had to plan ahead and decide what the team would do after each touchdown. With that in mind, he essentially had two options (this all assumes the game played out similarly to Thursday, with the Cowboys defense not giving up any more points): 1. Kick the extra point after each touchdown 2.
Go for two after the first touchdown, and the result of that attempt would determine what the team would do on the second touchdown. If you convert the two-pointer, you kick the extra point on the second attempt. If you fail on the two-pointer, then you have to attempt a two-point conversion on your second attempt.
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