This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict—according to new research by the Global Carbon Project. The 2026 edition (the 21st annual report) is published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion metric tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions this year. Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9%—likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. While global energy demand continues to rise, two-thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
However, the report finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO₂ emissions. With emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total CO₂ emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026—up from 42.8 billion metric tons last year. The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above preindustrial levels) is now 150 billion metric tons—equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.
With CO₂ still rapidly accumulating in the atmosphere, the dangerous impacts of climate change continue to increase. The report also assesses natural "sinks" (absorption of CO₂ by land and ocean). It finds that the land sink returned to former levels after a severe weakening during the 2023–24 El Niño weather pattern.
However, the powerful 2026 El Niño is expected to have a significant impact in the coming year. The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions around the world. "A decline in fossil CO₂ emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study.
"The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline." Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society research professor at UEA's School of Environmental Sciences, said, "Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China.
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