Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas likely voters favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate and give incumbent Republican Gov.
Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked. The survey, released Wednesday, finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.
Last month, Talarico was up by 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The shift to a tie reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary. FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE Although Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has strengthened his support a tad among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).
Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23). Paxton’s strongest groups include White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18). The survey finds Hispanic voters swinging back toward the Democrats.
After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. This key voting bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Overall, when it comes to Senate control, Texans choose Republicans by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from +1 point in September.
Talarico’s stronger party loyalty is another reason the race is close: 98% of Democrats support him, compared with 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to back Talarico. FOX NEWS POLL: COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS WEIGH ON GOP IN MIDTERMS Democrats also retain an enthusiasm edge: 69% are extremely interested in this year’s election, compared with 61% of Republicans.
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