PARIS — Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape the contours of the French presidential race. Far-right frontrunner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the societal fault lines exposed by the riots.
Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson. For the flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of vandalism. Overall, it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.
Where does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus for the leading runners across the political spectrum. Le Pen is receiving an immediate boost.
Even her rivals admit it. This Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. Le Pen has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified France.” Jordan Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears about the pillaging.
The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,” he said at a press conference in Paris. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the National Rally. Far-left leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting protesters and distancing himself from violence.
The France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the protesters. In the battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the former grabbed the limelight. But the violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest.
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