The AfD’s win in the Saxony-Anhalt election in eastern Germany, with 43.8 percent of the vote, is as much a major moment for the other nations of NATO as it is for the country where the elections took place. And Poland in particular. The strongest election result for a far-right party in Germany since World War II comes with the rise of fears of Russian sabotage and hybrid warfare across Europe—including recent attacks on Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany, and fires in factories in Estonia and Poland.
Germany’s turn to the right may well spell danger for a bloc desperate to defend itself against Vladimir Putin, and protect Ukraine. The AfD will not only weaken Germany, but is also pro-Russia, with its leader Alice Weidel, suggesting that Germany end its boycott of Russian oil and gas. Germany currently hosts NATO’s critical centers such as the Headquarters Allied Air Command in Ramstein, responsible for conducting air operations, as well as the Grafenwoehr Training Area, the largest U.S. military training facility in Europe.
Nonetheless, with an AfD victory, it may be harder for NATO to work as a bloc to defend the continent against Russia. Amid existing debates about NATO’s spending—Germany, according to NATO estimates, will spend only 2.69 percent of its GDP on defense in 2026—the country’s new, disruptive politics will weaken a once essential player in NATO further. Germany is now finally increasing its defense budget as a result of Russian threats, with plans to double this in four years.
But it is a country to its east—Poland—which is rapidly turning into the sparkly new weapon in NATO’s arsenal. It is becoming the operational, and military powerhouse of NATO’s eastern flank—and, potentially, more important than Germany itself to NATO. Experts are claiming that while Germany remains NATO’s logistical hub, Poland is becoming strategically significant for its forward capabilities.
With Russia on its doorstep, and a history of invasion and conflict from its larger neighbor, Poland has in fact been one of the champions of NATO’s aim to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense—even calling on countries to surpass NATO’s target, and achieve 5 percent as early as 2030. Though Germany has up until recently focused on military restraint, Poland has been investing in defense for years against a Russia the West too easily ignored pre-2022. Poland is now one of the leading centers for military strength in NATO, with an estimated 4.68 percent of its GDP, $53.8 billion, spent on defense in 2026—almost double that of Germany.
It is also aiming to build the largest land army in Europe, with its armed forces consisting of over 220,000 personnel this year. Poland is also heavily investing in military technology, including South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks, with plans to operate 1,100 tanks in total, more than Germany, France, the U.K. and Italy combined, by 2030. Poland has also been investing in civilian defense, with the "W Gotowości" (Always Ready) program promoting civilian military training, first aid, and cybersecurity, strengthening its overall security.
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