The far-right will be vying to seizea dirst tatse of power in Germany since the Second World war on Sunday, as voters head to the polls in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. A win for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party - which was polling at 40 per cent in the build up to Sunday’s vote – could spell an historic shift in German politics after years of cooperation between the other parties to keep the hard right out of power. The AfD seeks to restrict immigration, quit the Euro and restore ties with Russia as most of Europe rallies around Ukraine.
Germany’s own intelligence service has designated the party as ‘extremist right wing’. But the party has gone from strength to strength in recent years, buoyed by popular disillusion with successive governments in Berlin and drawing support from formerly communist states in the east. Ahead of the 2029 national elections, a victory in Saxony-Anhalt could offer a glimpse of a hardline path ahead for the EU’s biggest economy, marked by a deportation offensive, an overhaul of the education system, and the promotion of “traditional” relationships.
The Independent looks at what a win for the AfD could mean for the state and the future of Germany. The AfD is expected to decisively win Sunday’s election with 40 per cent of the vote, twice the support it saw there just five years ago. Polls have routinely put the AfD 10 to 15 points ahead of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), which currently leads a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the free-market Free Democrats (FDP).
Winning enough votes to secure an outright majority and govern the state alone would be especially humiliating for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, upsetting decades of alignment across the mainstream parties to keep the hard right out of power. Nationwide, the AfD has swollen to become the most popular party, polling at 29 per cent, while Merz has become the most unpopular chancellor since the founding of the Federal Republic, with 85 per cent of voters dissatisfied. In Saxony-Anhalt, all the parties except the small far-left BSW party have ruled out joining a coalition with the AfD, which has also said it aims to govern alone.
But there is no guarantee that the other parties will be able to form a viable coalition. If both the SPD (polling at 8.5 per cent) and the Greens (6 per cent) reach the minimum 5 per cent threshold, their votes – together with the CDU (23 per cent) and the far-left Left party (11.5 per cent) – could be enough to stop the AfD from forming a government in the state. But the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the Left Party and combining with the SPD and Greens may not be enough for a majority.
The Brookings Institution, an American think-tank that describes itself as nonpartisan, concluded that an absolute majority for AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund “is within reach”. They acknowledged that Siegmund - described as “a glib salesman with a degree in business psychology who once cofounded a company for room fragrances” - had organised a “remarkably successful campaign”, despite failing to disavow the AfD’s links to extremist movements, and despite the clumsy shortcomings of his deputy. And even if the AfD does fail to achieve an outright majority, they said, “the task of organizing a CDU-led governing majority faces almost insurmountable difficulties”, exacerbated by the CDU’s ruling out of any coalition with the Left party.
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