John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His new book, “Braver New World: The Countries Daring to Do Things Others Won’t,” was published in April. He is a regular POLITICO columnist.
Picking up a recent issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the cover seemed to scream. The intention was clear: A warning for both Germans and the world regarding the consequences of a far-right victory in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, as Siegmund seems poised to become his party’s first regional leader after the upcoming election there. The strategy clearly backfired.
Siegmund’s allies bought up as many copies of the magazine as they could, so he could sign them in front of adoring crowds. But the underlying sentiment was not wrong — what happens in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6 will affect all of Germany, Europe and the wider world. Polling at 42 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, that the AfD will emerge as the strongest force in this regional election is now beyond doubt — that’s around double the support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The Left party, another insurgent group, comes in third in the polling, while Merz’s coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), barely sit above the 5-percent threshold originally intended to keep out extremists, and the Greens are hovering perilously around that limit. The arithmetic is convoluted but crucial. If the SPD and the Greens make the cut, the various mainstream parties could cobble together enough seats to run the state.
But if they don’t, the AfD will be able to govern either on its own or possibly with the support of the far-left social conservative grouping Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, which is also hovering right below the 5-percent threshold. The latter outcome would precipitate a political crisis across Germany not seen in decades. But it doesn’t end there.
Two weeks after Saxony-Anhalt, voters will head to the polls in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and in the once reliably leftist city-region of Berlin, which is showing strong AfD support as well. This means that in the coming weeks or months, Germany could be faced with a collapsing government and even an ousted or replaced Merz — a move with little precedent in recent German history. And stuck with its stuttering economy, the country that prizes stability above all else is preparing to panic.
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