BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to blame Russia for the attempted drone attack in Leipzig and announce "extensive" sanctions, in what would mark a serious hardening of Berlin's posture toward Moscow. The German government's plan is set to involve direct measures against Russian entities, while the EU moves forward with punishing new sanctions that are being prepared in parallel in Brussels, three officials familiar with the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, told POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG. The announcement is scheduled for early next week, coinciding with an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland on Tuesday — but could also be made earlier depending on Merz, said two of the officials.
One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce.
It is unclear to what extent Berlin plans to hold individual Russian actors or the Russian government itself responsible for the attempted drone attack. Berlin is already preparing for a sharp counter reaction, as the officials said that Germany must prepare for punitive measures by Moscow. The planned move lands amid high tension with Russia, amid a spate of incidents on European soil that top officials have described as "hybrid warfare." On Tuesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise trip to Moscow where he warned the Russian government against escalating tensions with NATO.
But the timing of Merz' expected announcement is also domestically sensitive. On Sunday next week, elections will take place in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, followed by elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin two weeks later. In Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — known for its pro-Russia stance — is leading in the polls.
Merz had already announced Tuesday that there would be severe consequences for the Leipzig incident, though without naming any specific party. They will pay for this.” In response to questions from POLITICO about Germany's plan to hold Russia directly responsible, a government spokesperson said: “The Chancellery does not engage in speculation. The only thing that matters is the official attribution made by the federal government at its own discretion and after weighing all the results of the investigation.” Several pieces of evidence point to Russia following the foiled attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport.
According to the investigation [by who?], the drone, which had been rigged with explosives, was intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which is also used to transport military equipment. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence assessments directly linked Russia to the drone. There are also parallels to a series of sabotage attacks against European air cargo in 2024, which Russian intelligence services are suspected of carrying out.
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