BERLIN — It’s not the kind of photo op German Chancellor Friedrich Merz would likely want to frame for his office wall: him standing next to Ulrich Siegmund, the far-right politician a national magazine recently labeled the country’s “most dangerous man.” And yet, such a picture might soon be hard for Merz to avoid. On Sept. 6, Siegmund is set for a sweeping victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt. If his far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secures an outright majority in the state parliament, Siegmund will likely become premier, and his party will have broken through the political “firewall” that has kept it out of all federal and state governments since its founding in 2013.
It would be a historic triumph for the AfD and a shock to Germany’s political system. As premier, one of Siegmund’s earliest duties would be to take over the annually rotating chair position of the regular conferences of Germany’s 16 state premiers. The role usually comes with a visit to Berlin and a joint appearance with the chancellor before the press.
Calling this uncharted territory would be an understatement. The chancellor is not alone in his concern. All other major parties, and large parts of the German media, see the AfD as a threat to the country’s liberal postwar order.
Yet, if the party takes power in a state for the first time, the political establishment will no longer be able to keep it at arm’s length. While normal relations may be out of the question, at least for the foreseeable future, Germany’s federal system requires a minimum of cooperation and mutual support. So how would the German establishment deal with a state governed by the AfD?
POLITICO put this question to officials in the federal government and several state governments. The reluctance to answer was striking, especially among Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Senior party figures and state ministers either refused to comment or would not be quoted by name.
The hesitation is understandable. The CDU and the CSU once owned the political space to the right of center. Today, the AfD is eating into it.
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