GM surged 77% past Ford after its June 2024 buyback but now trails year-to-date, up just 3% versus Ford's 13%. Ford matches SPY's 12% YTD gain, fueled by 430% year-over-year earnings growth while GM posted a 26% GAAP decline. GM trades at 6x forward earnings but 90% institutional ownership leaves little room for new sponsorship versus Ford's 68%.
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Since GM's board authorized a $6 billion buyback on June 11, 2024, the hare sprinted past the tortoise. In 2026, the hare is napping. Ford is quietly outrunning its rival year to date, and both are running against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY).
GM's original authorization was followed by more capital returns: a 25% dividend hike and another $6 billion buyback in February 2025, then a further $6 billion repurchase approved in January 2026. That drumbeat shrank the diluted share count to 893 million, 35% below Q2 2023. Ford has leaned instead on its 4.18% dividend yield and smaller buybacks.
GM's Q2 earnings report looked strong on the surface. Adjusted EPS came in at $3.57 versus $3.18 expected, and management raised the full-year EBIT-adjusted range to $14.0 to $16.0 billion. But $2.28 billion in EV strategic realignment charges pressured GAAP results, and quarterly earnings growth registered −26.2% year over year.
Ford's direction is the opposite: quarterly earnings growth of +430.8% year over year, with Model E losses narrowing and Ford Pro paid subscriptions reaching roughly 1.6 million, up about 50% year over year. CEO Jim Farley described the business as "a more profitable, more disciplined, and generally different company." Analysts lean harder toward GM. The consensus price target is $100.04 for GM versus $15.78 for Ford.
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