Republicans are close to flipping seven Democratic-held Senate and gubernatorial seats in the 2026 midterms, despite President Donald Trump’s falling approval rating creating a challenging national environment for the GOP. Historically, the party of the president loses seats in the midterms when he is unpopular, and Trump’s approval has fallen to record lows in recent polls, fueling Democrats’ optimism about their chances of having a strong night on November 3. But Republicans are still competitive in several Democratic-held seats that could buck the national trend and flip into GOP hands.
Four Senate races and three gubernatorial races present flip opportunities for Republicans in this year's midterms. Those include the Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, as well as the governor’s races in Kansas, Oregon and Wisconsin. The national environment is currently favoring Democrats for the midterms, according to recent polling data.
A recent survey from YouGov and The Economist found that Democrats have a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot, 53 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters. It surveyed 1,003 likely voters from September 25 to 28. Democrats had an 8.3-point generic ballot lead in RealClearPolitics’ polling average as of Friday.
That is approaching Democrats’ generic ballot win of 8.6 points in the 2018 election, the last time there was a "blue wave" election in the popular vote. If that lead holds, Democrats would be well-positioned to take control of the House and compete for Senate control. That is being driven by Trump’s poor approval rating, as well as ongoing frustration with the economy and cost-of-living.
In the YouGov poll, Trump’s approval stood at -26 points, 62 percent disapproving and 36 percent approving of his job performance. Meanwhile, only 27 percent of respondents said the country is heading in the right direction, while 23 percent described the economy as being excellent or good. Affordability has become a major theme of the midterms, and that conversation has become dominated by soaring gas prices, which have become a sore spot for Republicans.
Gas prices surged amid the Iran war, which has seen disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for the global oil supply. Gas prices averaged $4.396 per gallon on Friday, adding pressure to Americans’ wallets as they weigh whether to support Democrats and Republicans. The national environment can be a powerful force in midterm elections, but there are other factors that can shape an outcome as well.
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