Republican state Senator Christine Drazan narrowly leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, putting the GOP within reach of a seat it hasn't won since 1982. The survey of 915 likely voters, conducted by DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) from September 17 to 27, found Drazan at 47 percent and Kotek at 46 percent after undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith drew 3 percent, while 4 percent remained undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points. It follows a series of surveys showing the Republican candidate leading since June. A GOP victory in Oregon could rank among the more unexpected midterm results, given that half of the likely voters surveyed said they backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 38 percent who said they voted for President Donald Trump.
Newsweek reached out to Drazan and Kotek's campaigns for comment Thursday. The race is one of the few governor's contests where Republicans are on offense in a reliably blue state, during a midterm cycle that has largely favored Democrats nationally. A Drazan win would make her Oregon's first Republican governor since Victor Atiyeh, who won his second term in 1982.
Atiyeh served two terms, from 1979 to 1987. It would also end a decade-long statewide drought for the party. Dennis Richardson's 2016 victory for secretary of state remains the last statewide election a Republican has won in Oregon.
Before that, former Senator Gordon Smith was the last Republican to win statewide, in 2002. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Oregon since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Harris beat Trump there 55 percent to 41 percent in 2024. Public polling in the race has been limited, but every survey since the May primary has shown the Republicans tied or ahead.
Earlier in the year, the picture looked different. A January poll by FM3 Research, sponsored by Charlie Health, showed Kotek leading former NBA player Chris Dudley, then a Republican primary candidate, by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent. The race tightened by spring.
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