A new analysis of the U.S. employment-based immigration system estimates that some applicants for permanent residency face waits stretching decades into the future, with professionals from India projected to encounter the longest delays because of visa backlogs and statutory limits on the number of green cards available each year. The analysis, published by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), examines backlogs in the employment-based first, second and third preference categories, known as EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3. The report estimates that a highly skilled worker from India with a labor certification application or employment-based immigrant petition filed in January 2026 or later could face a potential wait of 179 years in EB-2, 38 years in EB-3, and four to five years in EB-1.
NFAP said the projected delays stem from a backlog that has accumulated over many years because of the annual cap on employment-based immigrant visas, per-country limits on visa allocations and continued demand for foreign-born scientists, engineers and other highly skilled workers. The organization said Indians entering the EB-2 or EB-3 queue in 2025 or 2026 could face waits measured in decades if immigration law remains unchanged. A spokesperson for the U.S.
State Department told Newsweek in an email that it is common for it to reach annual limits on available employment-based visas for certain visa categories and nationalities before the end of the fiscal year. The department said it routinely notifies applicants and employers on the website when annual limits have been reached. The lengthy waits come as the Trump administration has tightened rules and increased scrutiny across several legal immigration pathways, including employment-based visas and green card applications.
The administration has imposed or proposed higher fees, expanded vetting and other restrictions affecting foreign workers, while also seeking to make it harder for some immigrants to obtain or maintain legal status. The department told Newsweek it characterized every visa decision as a national security decision and said that it processes all applications in accordance with statutory requirements and the date the immigrant visa petition was filed. According to the State Department, a rigorous visa process has been enacted as part of the Trump administration's efforts to put the interests of Americans first and protect the citizens.
According to the report, the employment-based backlog in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories reached an estimated 1.26 million people by December 2025, up from about 1.05 million in April 2020, an increase of 20.6 percent. The estimated EB-2 backlog rose 22.9 percent during that period while the EB-3 backlog increased 30.1 percent. The EB-1 backlog declined by 16.6 percent.
NFAP's analysis found that India accounts for the largest share of the backlog. The report estimates that nearly 1 million Indian nationals were waiting for employment-based green cards as of December 2025, representing about 79 percent of the total backlog in the three categories examined. Of those, an estimated 731,566 were in EB-2, and 213,414 were in EB-3.
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