Texas Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a fourth term may be headed for a closer-than-expected race, with a new poll showing the Republican leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by just 1 percentage point less than two months before Election Day. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990, and voters have backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential swing state for years without much success, but the party believes President Donald Trump’s national approval rating could fuel momentum, allowing them to be more competitive in several conservative-leaning states, such as Texas, where there is also a high-profile U.S.
Despite growing optimism among Democrats in the governor's race, the Cook Political Report continues to rate the contest as Likely Republican, though it adjusted the race from Solid Republican late last month. Senate race landing in the purple category due to Texas Republican primary voters’ decision to nominate the most flawed major statewide candidate in modern GOP history,” Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, told Newsweek. Voters will take to the polls in November to determine whether to grant Abbott a fourth term or elect the state's first Democratic governor in more than 30 years.
Newsweek has reached out to the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday. The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide this year, a cycle that includes several other high-profile races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia. Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022.
A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015. Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March. The incumbent is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with Kalshi putting Abbott's odds of winning at 82 percent and Polymarket at 81.3 percent.
Polls, however, suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2022. An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll of 1,167 likely Texas voters found Abbott leading Hinojosa by 1 percentage point, 46.9 percent to 45.8 percent. About 7 percent of participants were undecided.
When leaners are included, Abbott’s support grows to 51.2 percent and Hinojosa’s to 48.8 percent. This is evidence that the political environment is competitive rather than evidence Abbott has suddenly become an underdog,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek. Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump's job performance while 59 percent disapprove as of August 28, leaving him underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters.
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