The smoke rising from the Kapotnya oil refinery to the south-east of Moscow marks one of Ukraine’s biggest air raids on the Russian capital since the start of the war, and the latest salvo in an energy crisis that threatens to affect households and businesses across the globe. More than 1,500 miles away, British motorists are braced for the ripple effect from that conflict, and the US-Israel war on Iran. Average UK diesel prices are expected to reach record highs within days – while across Europe and the US, pump prices have already surpassed all-time highs.
In a call on Sunday, Donald Trump pressed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian refineries over concerns that the attacks were pushing up global fuel prices, the Financial Times reported. On Truth Social, Trump said Russia has “unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry” and called for an end to “this ridiculous and never ending war”. While the price of Brent crude oil – which briefly fell below $100 a barel on Monday – remains in flux, already hard-pressed households and small firms face a far greater cost threat at forecourt pumps as the combined impact of Russia’s war-damaged refineries and the Middle East crisis has erased about a fifth of the world’s diesel supplies.
His diesel Ford estate, once used for camping trips, is now used to carry heavy tools to jobs around Tottenham in north London. Across Britain’s forecourts, the average price of diesel has climbed by 54% to 196.28p a litre since the Middle East crisis began in late February. It is expected to reach a record £2 a litre within days, with some forecourts already charging above the psychologically important mark.
In Europe, pump prices have already hit record highs in recent weeks, leading to unrest and growing calls for government leaders to protect consumers from the surge in cost. While the popularity of fully electric and hybrid petrol vehicles may be on the rise in the UK and Europe amid attempts to move away from polluting fossil fuels, diesel remains the overwhelmingly dominant fuel. It is the single biggest cost for many independent traders and small business owners, powering transport, tools and services.
It is also the economic lifeblood for farmers, and logistics and haulage businesses, layering costs on to grocery bills and consumer purchases. But when fuel prices go up everything else follows. The things I need to buy from Wickes to do a job will cost more before I even fill up,” he says.
In part, the surge in fuel prices is due to the rise in global oil prices following Iran’s effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for Gulf oil. The price of Brent crude has climbed to a four-year high, raising the cost of refined oil products such as diesel and gas oil. Yet the most pressing energy crisis is not a shortage of crude, but a shortage of the refining capacity to turn crude into the fuels consumers need.
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