About 10 years ago, in one of the meetings of a major Western organization, I made a fairly straightforward point: Moscow will escalate if it wants to. No matter what we do or do not do. My line drew fierce rebuttals from peers.
Those “new Allies,” they seemed to allude, did not quite understand the rules of the game. Nearly five years into Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the same argument still raises quite a few eyebrows. The usual line was: NATO had to show it is defensive.
And, throughout, it has to show restraint. I hope that by 2026 our rules reflect the realities better. The Russo-Georgian war in 2008.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And now sabotage, attacks on infrastructure, GNSS interference, cyber operations and drone incursions. Moscow has escalated repeatedly, drawing new and more dangerous lines of its own.
Western messaging toward the Kremlin has changed much less: we still shy away even from talking about the possibility that we, the West, may escalate, too. Our deterrent messaging goes something like this. We spend a lot on defense and will spend more.
Our economies are much larger than Russia’s. Our militaries are getting more ready. Therefore, we can remain calm.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
