One message I try to get across every year is that just because we call someone a bust, it does not mean we think they are bad at football. Average draft position plays a huge part in determining who we think will bust. This year, the wide receiver position provides an excellent illustration.
There is not a wide receiver in the first six rounds that I have ranked more than a round below their ADP. That does not mean that my wide receiver rankings are chalk, I don't agree at all on the order the wide receivers are going in, but for the most part, they are all going cheaper than I think they should. So, while I did have several wide receiver busts in the first two editions of this column, I can't rightly call any of the receivers a bust this season.
That doesn't mean I would advise drafting all of them at cost. Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown are all receivers that I had in my bust column earlier this year, but they are all within 10 picks of where I would draft them now.
In Evans case, I believe that is because he's been dinged up at training camp with a quad injury and a groin injury. You don't need to make any substation jokes, because this is just continuing a trend from the past two years. He has missed 12 games in the past two seasons, he's now 33 years old, and he hasn't been able to practice for two weeks without something feeling tight.
Even in Round 6 I don't want to pull the trigger, but the direction Evans' ADP is going he'll be a Round 7 pick by tomorrow. The middle of Round 7 is where I would take him, expecting that when he's healthy he could still be a solid WR2 for my team. Just plan on building depth around him.
ADP is much closer to where my ranking is for Jefferson and Brown as well. When I called Jefferson a bust he had a Round 1 ADP. Right now, on CBS at least, he's in the middle of Round 2, which is fine.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
