Following the first strikes in the US-Iran war for a month, this week, United States President Donald Trump appeared to signal a new phase in the war, which marked its first six months on Friday last week. US news outlet Axios reported Washington may be switching to a new “no war, no peace” strategy in the conflict in which it aims to hit Iran periodically without engaging in a sustained conflict. So, what exactly is Trump’s strategy now, and can the US military sustain it as the war enters its seventh month?
The US struck military targets on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, close to Iran’s strategic port of Bandar Abbas. Washington said its forces hit two Iranian rocket launchers which it claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was preparing to use to scatter sea mines into the strait. Iranian media reported three people were killed.
Iran subsequently launched missiles at two airbases hosting US military personnel and assets in Jordan. Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles. In turn, Trump pledged to respond, saying: “We’re going to hit them hard.” Speaking at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his forces would cease fire if the US did the same, and if it fulfilled its commitments under an interim deal signed in June to end the war, lift sanctions and open the Strait of Hormuz.
That deal has since expired, however, and largely fell apart because of disagreements arising from its vague wording. Monday’s exchange of fire marked the first direct attacks between the two sides in more than a month and raised fears that the conflict could return to a more intense military phase. Trump, however, told media that the renewed fighting did not necessarily mean a return to full-scale war, saying the Strait of Hormuz is in “extremely good shape” while claiming Iran’s financial system, military, and leadership had been largely degraded.
We’ll see what happens,” he told reporters at the White House. The Trump administration’s approach to the war on Iran has been ever-changing. It began with a full-blown military campaign that lasted for 40 days, followed by a ceasefire which was later extended.
In June, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU), agreeing to terms for a ceasefire and allowing wider peace talks for 60 days. The woolly wording of the MoU, especially related to who had overall control of the Strait of Hormuz, caused it to collapse within weeks, with the US and Iran blaming each other for violating its terms. That led to a renewal of US attacks on Iran in July, with Tehran again retaliating against US military assets and other infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries.
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