It has only taken a month of play to already impact the job security of numerous coaches throughout college football. For some, a big win or two has eased the pressure and increased the optimism that they'll make it to another season in 2027. For others, a disastrous loss has ratcheted up the heat and outside noise, making it clear that change is needed.
Unlike last year's wildly active coaching carousel that began in mid-September, there hasn't been a head coach firing yet as we enter October. Don't get too comfortable, though, as change could be around the corner. After speaking with numerous industry sources over the last week, here's a status update on the coaches whose job security has improved and those who may need to start packing soon.
Since the season started, Florida State has fired its AD, suffered a bizarre power outage in its home opener, and has stumbled to a 2-2 record. There's a path to Mike Norvell keeping his job, but it almost certainly needs to include a win over Virginia this weekend. Norvell needs to be in that 7-win range and still has games against Louisville, Miami and Florida on the schedule.
With an athletic department in transition, a $46.7 million buyout is still a huge sum to pay out, and it could help Norvell's cause if he can get a few more wins. If Norvell can win two of the next three (UVA, Louisville, Miami) before the bye, there's a viable path to survival. After consecutive 4-8 seasons, Mike Locksley entered this season on one of the hottest seats in the country.
Long one of the least-resourced schools in the Big Ten, Maryland stepped up its financial efforts to get it out of the Big Ten roster spend cellar. A disappointing 2-2 start, which included last weekend's embarrassing 54-3 loss to UCLA, has raised those temperatures to a scorching level. Industry sources continue to say it is a matter of when, not if, Locksley is let go rather than returning for a ninth season.
His only path to survival is a miraculous turnaround, which feels beyond unlikely with Nebraska and No. 5 Ohio State up next. Locksley, who is 39-51 in eight seasons at Maryland, would be owed nearly $10 million if fired. Before the season started, there were rumblings that Dave Doeren could retire at the end of the year.
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