This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: New research led by the University of Michigan provides utilities and policymakers with forecasts that can help them better prepare for future extremes in peak energy demand in the United States. The findings are published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"We focused on the extreme peak demands because we want to keep our power systems reliable," said Mai Shi, a postdoctoral research fellow at the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability, or SEAS. "If the system works for moderate conditions but fails in extremes, it doesn't work. That's not how we build the power grid.
We need to plan for extremes." In the new study, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Shi and colleagues modeled how those extremes will evolve between 2020 and 2060 with an eye to heating and cooling. Heating and cooling are among the top consumers of electricity for both residential and commercial buildings.
The team analyzed how these would shape extremes in peak power demand against the backdrop of two important changes. The first is climate change. Not only is the world's average temperature climbing, but heat waves are growing more intense and frequent, meaning cooling buildings will require more energy.
The second change is that technology that helps heat and cool buildings more efficiently will become more common, diffusing to more buildings over time. For the technology component, the team considered the growing use of insulation and heat pumps. Heat pumps are electrified heating and cooling systems that can offer substantial efficiency gains compared with air conditioners, for example.
The rub is that, being fully electric, heat pumps also place a greater burden on the grid compared with conventional systems that use fossil fuels, like gas furnaces. That burden is compounded by the fact that the efficiency of heat pumps drops the colder it gets. Thus, increased heat pump adoption would also mean higher electricity demands, especially in regions with cold winters.
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