England’s men find themselves in an unusual position: they are favourites to beat Papua New Guinea in their final group game, but underdogs to emerge from the combined Groups B and C and reach the semi-finals They trail Samoa by 68 points on points difference and cannot finish above Tonga because of their head-to-head record, leaving their hopes of progressing dependent on a convincing win and results elsewhere going their way. That means they must beat Papua New Guinea by as big a margin as possible, then hope Tonga defeat Samoa by enough to give England a route into the semi-finals. If that all aligns, into the semi-finals they will go.
England's women, meanwhile, face a more straightforward equation. A win against Samoa would secure their place in the semi-finals, but it would rank among the biggest victories of their campaign. They are capable of pulling it off, but the challenge is clear.
England were beaten 78-0 by the Jillaroos, while Samoa lost 40-0 to the same opposition. Those results offer a stark indication of the task ahead. Both England sides need to show the fighting spirit that has become synonymous with the nation as they look to make their mark on the other side of the world.
England's men may sit third in the international rankings, but that is not how they are viewed Down Under. Australia, New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa are all considered ahead of them, despite England having whitewashed both Tonga and Samoa in recent series. The complicated group structure has done Brian McDermott's side few favours.
They effectively had one chance to put themselves in a strong position, and they needed to beat Tonga in their opening match to do so. Instead, they lost 30-12. Even two wins from their remaining games - and convincing ones at that - may not be enough to save their campaign.
They could be enough despite England's men not meeting up once before the tournament. They could be enough despite having just two training sessions to prepare for their opening group match. They could be enough with the odds stacked against them.
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