This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: In the 2025 federal election, Canadians voted at the highest rate since 1993. Explanations for high or low turnout usually focus on the national election campaign, including how close the race was and what seemed to be at stake.
As lead author of a new study published in the Canadian Journal of Political Science, I worked with my co-authors—Daniel Rubenson, Roosmarijn de Geus, Benjamin Allen Stevens and Peter John Loewen—to look close to home and examine how someone's political views compare with those of the people around them. Our research shows that people whose views closely match the average views in their riding are less likely to vote than those whose views differ moderately. Similarly, people whose views differ extensively from those around them are less likely to vote.
In short, voting peaks at moderate levels of disagreement. We used the Local Parliament Project, an online survey of more than 31,000 Canadians conducted during the 2015 federal election campaign, in our research. It included respondents from nearly every riding, which allowed us to compare each person's views with those of others in the same riding.
Research shows labels like "left" and "right" mean different things to different people. We, therefore, measured political views using people's positions on 37 specific issues, such as taxes, health care and immigration. This allowed us to see how far each person's views were from their neighbors' in the same riding, and the diversity of opinions across the riding as a whole.
This captured different information. For example, a riding's voters can be largely like-minded, yet some people living there can still hold differing views about specific issues. We found that a person whose views are very similar to their riding's average has a predicted 83% chance of voting.
A person at the opposite extreme has a predicted 63% chance, though this estimate is less precise. People halfway between these extremes have the highest likelihood of voting, at 90%. These patterns hold after we account for factors that include age, education, income, how close the local race was and how much parties campaigned.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
