The Texas Senate race has entered its final stretch with Democrats pouring millions of dollars to help James Talarico flip the state, and Republicans countering with even more support for Ken Paxton to keep the crucial seat in GOP hands in the 2026 midterms. Total advertising spending in the race has already surpassed $440 million, according to the analysis firm AdImpact, making it the costliest Senate race of this cycle and the second most expensive nonpresidential contest on record. With under a month to go until Election Day, and surveys showing a tight contest—despite Talarico’s lead in most major polls—the candidates’ respective fundraising capabilities have been a key point of scrutiny and comparison, and have been taken as an indication of how critical the race is to both parties’ political fortunes.
Newsweek contacted both campaigns via email for comment. This week, Paxton’s campaign told Politico that the Texas attorney general had raised $18 million in July, August and September, more than double the $9 million it managed in the second quarter. This would be a personal best for Paxton, who won his primary over the incumbent Republican John Cornyn in May.
However, it would still be behind the $30 million Talarico said his campaign raised from April through June, after bringing in $27 million in the first quarter. The Democrat’s campaign has not yet released figures for the third quarter, but the Texas Tribune reported in September that Talarico—a member of the Texas House of Representatives—has cumulatively raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025. While Talarico maintains the edge in fundraising abilities so far, Paxton has benefited from the wider GOP establishment pouring tens of millions of dollars into supporting his campaign.
Recent filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) reveal that Texas PAC spent $61 million in two days on ads and other strategies to boost Paxton and attacking Talarico. This brought the total spent by the super PAC, affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, to $131 million in 17 days. This outside support is coming from myriad sources, including Elon Musk’s America PAC and President [Donald] Trump’s MAGA Inc., which has raised over $400 million as of August 31 according to FEC records.
Taken together, AdImpact estimated that Republicans have so far put $323 million into the race, well over double the $116 million spent by Democrats. Of those recorded by The New York Times, Paxton has taken an edge in only one out of the past 20 major surveys, with two draws and the remainder going to the Democrat. In a Fox News poll published last week, Talarico enjoyed a 2-point advantage—within the margin of error—but a clearer lead when it came to favorability.
Talarico has an 8-point net positive rating, compared to a net negative rating of 18 for Paxton. A New York Times/Siena poll of 615 voters in Texas, published Saturday, had Talarico leading by 6 points, up from a dead heat in the June survey. But with the race still in toss-up territory according to analysis from the Cook Political Report and others, experts say fundraising could prove decisive.
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