United States oil companies have earned more than $130bn in profits during the war on Iran, even as consumers pay much higher prices for key commodities, amid fears that US President Donald Trump may renew fighting after midterm elections. The estimate, released by The New York Times, is a conservative evaluation based on the performance of 51 large US oil and gas companies in the six months from April through September. By contrast, in the same period in 2025 – when the prices of oil were lower prior to the launch of the US-Israel war on Iran – they collectively earned less than $47bn.
But the gains come as burgeoning living costs are crushing consumers. Americans have spent an extra $150bn on petrol and diesel since the war on Iran began on February 28, according to an analysis by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab, which amounts to more than $1,150 per household. The disparity has fuelled a political debate over who gains and who pays the price for the war.
Responding to Trump, Democratic Representative Jim McGovern wrote on X: “We’re not making a ‘freaking fortune,’ we’re PAYING a ‘freaking fortune’.” Naser al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) in Milan, Italy, said US energy companies have benefitted from the war in different ways. Additionally, “damage to Middle Eastern and Russian refineries, disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, and sanctions-related trade frictions have intensified shortages”, while “relatively secure US facilities and access to discounted crude strengthen these gains”. ExxonMobil and Chevron, the biggest US oil companies, on Friday reported profits of between $10bn and $15bn.
While the gains are considerable, The New York Times found they generally remained below 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to soar to roughly $100 a barrel and raised natural gas prices, compared with the current average of $90 from April through September. American refining companies also reaped greater profits as global fuel supplies tightened and inventories depleted due to heavy damage to infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia. Valero Energy’s third-quarter profit increased more than sixfold, reaching $6.83bn.
Phillips 66 announced its highest quarterly profit on record, with net income jumping to $5.62bn from $133m a year earlier. Geoffrey Miller, geopolitical analyst and editor of the Gulf States Insights newsletter, said the US-Israel war with Iran “created the largest supply-side shock to global oil and refined products markets in years”. Miller added that the war “created a risk premium that US-based operators are structurally well placed to monetise”.
By contrast, Gulf producers were “hit hard by both higher costs and risks, along with physical damage, which makes their ability to benefit from the higher prices much more difficult”. Tehran retaliated against the US-Israeli attack by launching missiles and drones at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-registered independent conflict monitor, found Iran and Iran-backed groups in the region have carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the six GCC member states.
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