The 2026 Formula 1 title race has become a two-horse race between Mercedes duo Kimi Antonelli and George Russell with eight rounds remaining. Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points ahead of this weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia and it will be fascinating to see how the Italian responds following what he called his "worst weekend" of the season last time out in Baku. Depending on the quality of Mercedes' major upgrade package that will be introduced in Malaysia this week, we could see the Silver Arrows dominate the last third of the season.
However, there's one driver everyone on the grid mentions every weekend when it comes to who could challenge, or who will be a threat - and that's Max Verstappen. This year is the first season Verstappen has not challenged for the title since 2020, having won four championships in a row from 2021 to 2024 and coming just two points short of an incredible comeback in 2025 to defeat Lando Norris. After a difficult start to 2026, Red Bull appear to be on an upward trajectory again and history shows Verstappen will be an issue for other title protagonists.
Ten years ago, Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton were duking it out for the title and Rosberg just came out on top. It was an incredible, tense ending to the season but during the run-in, despite Mercedes having a dominant car, a 19-year-old Verstappen gave Rosberg and Hamilton a headache on a few occasions. "My god, having him around in the races!
The risk of a DNF for myself, it increases like 10-fold," Rosberg told Sky Sports F1 when reflecting on 2016. "On my way to the championship, I had him around me every race in the last four races. He passed me I think in three of those four races, in a tussle." At the Japanese Grand Prix, Verstappen found himself ahead of Hamilton in the closing stages and was prepared to defend aggressively in their fight for second to the frustration of the British driver.
Hamilton claimed Verstappen "moved under braking" which led to the FIA clamping down on such a manoeuvre which became known as the "Verstappen Rule". While Brazil 2016 is remembered for Verstappen's superb comeback drive in torrential rain to the podium, he was actually running in second earlier in the race after dancing around the outside of Rosberg in Turn 3. We are yet to have a wet race or qualifying in 2026 and, in theory, the cars with most downforce should be the best in the wet.
But Verstappen's ability in the rain cannot be underestimated and he will be willing to take risks when the Mercedes drivers may not, similarly to Rosberg in 2016. And in the season finale, Verstappen spun on the opening lap and dropped to the back but ran an alternative strategy and, in the middle of the race, had Rosberg behind him, who was on fresher tyres after pitting and needed to overtake the Red Bull driver. "Tony [Ross, Rosberg's race engineer] saying it's critical we pass Verstappen for the championship…holy moly, seriously!" explained Rosberg.
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