Hull scored nine league goals from set plays last season, the joint-fewest in the Championship. Yet two in 21 minutes earned them a famous victory over Manchester United on Saturday. It was a disastrous start to the campaign for the visitors.
While Michael Carrick said before the game it would not be easy, he would not have expected victory being so straightforward for Hull. It was a match United simply had to win given the gulf in resources and expectation. Opta rated their chance of victory at 68.9% before kick-off.
United’s inability to deal with Oli McBurnie as the target man was painful to watch. Their slack defending on the set pieces from which Hull scored will also draw focus. Their attacking should be the greatest concern, though.
A glance at expected goal numbers can paint a false impression. Hull generated 1.01 xG to United’s 1.83, so did the visitors deserve to win? The issue is the breakdown of chances that contributed to the total.
United had 21 shots, 16 of which were worth less than 0.1 expected goals. This was a theme last season, albeit less obvious when they performed well under Carrick. United’s open-play shots were worth an average of 0.104 expected goals in 2025-26, the third worst rate among teams that finished in the top half of the Premier League.
Against Hull, this figure was just 0.087. Not until the 78th minute did a notable opportunity fall to a player they would hope to have one, as Bryan Mbeumo received a through ball from Matheus Cunha. Before that, their highest value chances fell to Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui.
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