Icelanders head to the polls on Saturday to decide whether their country should reenter negotiations to join the European Union, a vote that could have economic and security implications beyond the small Arctic country. The election comes 13 years after Iceland, under a Eurosceptic government, paused the last EU accession talks, believing the country would fare better outside the bloc. Arctic security concerns have grown amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and United States President Donald Trump’s threats to invade neighbouring Greenland, the cost of living has climbed and Iceland’s currency has kept wavering.
Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, whose Social Democrats party is pro-EU, said she will honour whatever choice the public makes. If Icelanders vote “yes”, the country would likely start years of negotiations with Brussels to hammer out membership terms. It would then hold a second referendum on whether to formally become part of the EU.
Frostadottir has said a “yes” vote would see the nation “enter negotiations with our heads held high and stand together in seeking a good agreement”. If the result is “no”, “all speculation about what [EU membership] might involve will be set aside”, she said. Recent surveys show Icelanders are almost evenly split on the proposal.
A Gallup opinion poll conducted this week found that 51.6 percent of respondents were against new EU membership talks, while 48.4 percent favoured them. An earlier survey by Icelandic pollster Maskina showed a narrow majority of 51.3 percent of respondents backing new EU accession talks. Gabriella Gricius, associate professor of strategy at the Norwegian Military Academy, said Iceland’s lack of armed forces has always left it “reliant on NATO and specifically the US for its security”.
Adam Fishwick, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Iceland, said the expected benefits of membership would be reduced inflation, a more stable currency and fewer customs barriers for consumers. However, the debate over EU accession remains “quite polarised”, he noted. Opponents fear the small nation of 395,000 people would “lose control over everyday policy decisions” and have limited sway in a bloc filled with larger European powers, Fishwick said.
The benefits of EU membership for Iceland are not as obvious as for other potential candidates. Iceland is a relatively wealthy country that, as a member of Schengen and the European Economic Area, already gets a lot of the single-market access that would come with EU membership. However, the country has experienced growing economic pains in recent years, primarily regarding the cost of living.
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