HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political label she wears isn't that she's a Democrat. Or that she's not a Republican. Instead, it's that she is an Arkansan.
As a lunchtime crowd ate at Tailgater's Burger Company Friday, Shoffner decried what she called a historically unproductive Congress driven by extreme voices in each party and pitched herself to receptive — if skeptical — voters as a candidate who would better serve their needs. Arkansas is one of the most conservative states in the country, with nearly two out of three voters supporting President Trump in 2024 and Republican Sen. But in the final days of the 2026 midterm election, Shoffner and other Arkansas Democrats are crisscrossing the state with a message that seeks to capitalize on the Trump administration's unpopularity, stubbornly high prices and anti-incumbency vibes.
"We're the sleeper race," Shoffner told NPR. "I mean, we're the race that no one's noticed and that no one is going to see coming." Republicans have taken some notice, pre-emptively pouring millions of dollars into the Senate race, the Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District and robust get-out-the vote efforts to try and stem the rising tide of dissatisfaction with the party. But even in a midterm cycle where Senate races in states like Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as tossups, and where the landscape of potentially competitive House races stretches deep into conservative territory, Arkansas seems a bridge too far for election forecasters.
Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District is considered "Likely Republican," according to the Cook Political Report, and its Senate race is "Solid Republican." At an outdoor coffee shop in Arkadelphia, Vanilla Hannah said she was there to support Shoffner and talk about her own reelection bid to be a local justice of the peace. She said it's possible that Arkansas could elect Democrats this year because the crop of candidates seems willing to work with people to meet their needs — and there are a lot of them. "When it comes down to basic needs or whatever, the 'D' or the 'R' after your name don't mean a thing, because we're all suffering and all having the same issues and everybody's ready for a change," she said.
"And running for an election is not just running specifically on the Democratic policies or the Republican or the libertarians or whatever. It's just what you believe in, and it seems like more and more people are having a common belief now." Later, Shoffner visited a small family farm in nearby Bierne where several members of the Hatley family cooked sorghum to make syrup and talked about why they were supporting her campaign. Shoffner is a multigenerational farmer who decided to shut down her family's operation in 2025, citing financial headwinds from rising input costs and Trump administration tariff and trade policies.
That in turn inspired her Senate run and influenced much of her campaign's focus. Sliding behind the wheel of a side-by-side utility vehicle, Shoffner takes off across the property and recounts her life story that led her away from the farm, into nonprofit work and back home when her dad got sick. She doesn't buy the argument that her chances are low to win.
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