Just five games in, it might seem a bit early to pay much attention to the Premier League table - but it's probably more settled than you think. While it would be no surprise if Manchester City and Arsenal finish as the top two -outside of any points deductions or sanctions directed City's way - will Brentford really qualify for Europe, Hull stay up and Tottenham be involved in yet another relegation battle? Recent history certainly suggests it's likely.
It has to be mentioned there is a huge asterisk hanging over the Premier League table at the moment after Man City were found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them. The Premier League leaders have appealed but, if the guilty verdict remains, potential sanctions could have a significant impact on the table. Until then, we can only deal with the table as it is now.
If we look at the Premier League after five games last season and where teams ultimately ended up, the final table was already starting to take shape as 13 of the 20 sides finished within four places of where they sat even at this early stage (65%). Eventual champions Arsenal were second, Sunderland were already seventh ahead of finishing there eight months later, and two of the three sides that were relegated were already in the bottom three. There were some notable exceptions.
Aston Villa and Tottenham effectively swapped places at either end of the table, with Villa rising up from the bottom three to finish in the top four and Spurs dropping to 17th. It's a similar story across the last 10 seasons of the Premier League. Over two-thirds of teams finished within four places of where they were after five games (138 out of 200), with 27 of those sitting in exactly the same position 33 games later.
Another 50 teams finished between five and nine places from where they were at this stage, meaning that just 12 teams in the last decade moved up or down the table by double digits after this point, with three of those coming last season. However, one part of the table that doesn't settle quickly is the top spot. The side leading the Premier League after five games has gone on to win the title in just one of the last six seasons – Man City doing so in 2023-24 – and just three times in the last 11 seasons.
Even the fact that Man City have five wins out of five so far doesn't mean much. They also won their first five games under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and in Pep Guardiola's first season in 2016-17 but didn't go on to win the title on either occasion (although they did in 2023-24). Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were also top with a 100% record at this stage but had little to show for it at the end of the season.
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