Israel’s election results are due to be certified on Wednesday, but with both leading blocs falling short of a parliamentary majority, negotiations remain deadlocked. As things stand, the right-wing coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secured 53 seats in the October 27 vote, while the self-styled Zionist opposition alliance led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot had 48. A majority requires 61 seats in the 120-strong Knesset.
The 19 remaining seats went to the two Arab-led lists – the Joint List and Ra’am, or the United Arab List. Netanyahu’s camp has been accused of seeking to delegitimise the results after launching a series of largely discounted claims that the vote for the Arab parties, which scored their best-ever electoral performance, had been manipulated by foreign interference. Despite their historic showing that was boosted by an unprecedented surge in voter turnout, the two Arab-led lists remain politically isolated.
And while there have been indications that they would be prepared to support, or at least not oppose, an Eisenkot-led government, their backing remains contentious within the opposition – a broad and increasingly fractious alliance that also includes parties led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, left-winger Yair Golan and right-winger Avigdor Lieberman. After a meeting on Tuesday, the main opposition leaders issued a statement announcing that they were preparing to “act immediately” to replace Netanyahu’s governing coalition “with a national emergency government and translate the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset into action”. Yet, the statement did not specify how they would reach the majority that would ultimately depend on them allying with either the Arab-led lists or two ultra-Orthodox parties, which have historically supported Netanyahu in return for shielding some of their members from military service.
Though informal negotiations are widely reported to have begun, official talks on establishing a governing coalition will start only after the results are certified on Wednesday. Netanyahu’s Likud party has already mooted refusing to recognise the results, citing its continuing claims of irregularities in the Arab vote. Those allegations have been investigated and discounted by police, while a separate probe by the internal security service, the Shin Bet, remains ongoing.
Once the results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with all the parties to determine which member of the Knesset, not necessarily a party leader, is best placed to form a government. Herzog, who lost to Netanyahu after an especially bitter contest in 2015, has found himself in the unusual position of having to decide who should be given the first opportunity to form a government, while simultaneously considering the prime minister’s longstanding request for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial. One of Herzog’s options is to ask the Arab parties to recommend Eisenkot.
If selected, the leader of the centrist Yashar party will initially have 28 days to assemble a coalition, a period that can be extended by 14 days. Should he fail, Herzog can then invite another candidate to try. For his part, Netanyahu on Monday argued that Likud’s first-place finish, with 27 seats, gave him a mandate to lead the next government.
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