Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday for legislative elections. The vote, the first since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, is being called one of the most important in its history. It will determine the direction of Israel’s government as the country remains embroiled in multiple years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with deepening polarisation at home.
Here are five things to know about the upcoming election: Any party clearing an electoral threshold of 3.25 percent enters parliament, whose term lasts four years. There are two main blocs vying to lead the next government. The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.
These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – both conservative religious parties – and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led respectively by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The main opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led opposition movements – the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid. The latest opinion polls published before a ban on new surveys took effect on Friday showed that neither bloc was on course to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats.
A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would win 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists – Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al parties. However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for now. The fractured landscape means Israeli parties could be in for tough post-election negotiations to cobble together a governing majority.
If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government reliant on support from parties outside the governing coalition – or potentially head to another round of elections. Israelis are grappling with a series of domestic and international crises this election cycle. On the domestic front, there is growing demand for accountability for reported security failures, including those leading up to the October 2023 attacks, anger over the growing ultra-Orthodox community’s military exemption and concern over Netanyahu’s repeated efforts to push judicial reforms that critics say undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.
A war-weary public is also weighing how Israel should proceed with its multiple military conflicts, with many voters seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon. It is Israel’s first election since the October 2023 attacks and comes amid a surge in far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the direction of the country. The election also comes as Israel’s international standing has deteriorated, with a host of Israel’s allies sanctioning its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many other nations denouncing the country’s continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
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