With Israel’s governing and opposition blocs failing to secure a majority in Israel’s election, and neither appearing ready to ally with Arab parties that could allow them to form a coalition, speculation is growing over the future shape of the government. The vote on Tuesday, billed as one of the most important in Israel’s history, saw turnout reach 77.7 percent of eligible voters – the highest level since 1999. With nearly 80 percent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, the outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, centred around his Likud party, had secured 54 seats, short of the 61 needed to establish a governing coalition.
Former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s self-styled Zionist opposition, drawing from parties as diverse as Yair Golan’s relatively left-wing Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s hard-right Yisrael Beiteinu, had 49 seats, also short of a governing majority in the 120-strong Knesset. Holding the balance of power, in theory at least, are the Arab-dominated Ra’am and Joint List, with 17 seats, more than enough to give either bloc a majority with which to appoint a speaker, pass legislation and form a working government. Those figures are not final, however, with the final tally expected by Friday and official results formally published on November 4 .
What happens next is a matter of procedure as much as politics. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on who they want as prime minister, before tasking the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That candidate has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.
If they fail, the mandate can pass to another member of parliament, and if that also fails, the Knesset is dissolved and Israelis return to the polls, with the current cabinet staying on as caretaker. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who account for one-fifth of the total population, reached about 80 percent, according to some estimates, also above the 1999 figures. Analysts said the surge was propelled by the harsh treatment of the Israeli-Palestinian minority by the Likud-led government, which increased significantly following the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 that triggered Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s outgoing government is the most right-wing in Israeli history, featuring far-right figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose policies and rhetoric against Palestinians have essentially made him a recruiting sergeant for the pro-Arab parties. Analysts also attributed the strong performance to a well-organised campaign that targeted the demands of Israel’s Palestinian community and the opportunity for a greater voice in the Knesset. Likud spent much of the election race making unsubstantiated claims that the opposition was planning to form a government reliant on Arab parties after the vote, while petitioning to bar the Joint List from running.
On the opposition side, Lieberman ruled out a coalition with either Arab or ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, while Together’s Naftali Bennett, whose 2021-22 coalition included Ra’am, told an activists’ conference there was “no mandate” to form a government with Arab parties after the October 7 attack. Levy sees four possible scenarios ahead for either bloc, listed in no particular order: the possibility of a new election; Likud drawing enough defectors from the right of the opposition to form a government; a so-called “unity government” led by Netanyahu that draws on the right across the Knesset; and “Eisenkot and company biting the bullet and using the anti-Netanyahu majority to form a minority government with Arab support,” he said. The chance of defection amidst what is seen as a highly polarised society remains unclear.
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