Here’s what’s expected in the battles for control of the House and Senate Election Day has arrived at last, and results for the midterm elections will start trickling out tonight. Democrats are widely viewed as likely to take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives by winning a majority of seats in that chamber of Congress, while President Donald Trump’s Republican Party has more of a chance of keeping its grip on the Senate.
Anthony Scaramucci Discusses the 2028 Presidential Election Play video: Anthony Scaramucci Discusses the 2028 Presidential Election Democrats’ likelihood of capturing the House was around 94% or 95%, as of this morning. That’s according to prediction market Kalshi and rival Polymarket, respectively. (Polymarket has a data partnership with MarketWatch’s publisher, Dow Jones.) Don’t Short Yourself offers weekly money tips to help you earn it, stack it and grow it. I would like to receive updates and special offers from Dow Jones and affiliates.
I can unsubscribe at any time. Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate were at 77% on Kalshi and 78% on Polymarket. The decisive races in the fight for a Senate majority probably will be the six rated as “toss-ups” by Cook Political Report analysts — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas — along with Michigan’s contest, which CPR had rated as a “toss-up” up until Monday, when it switched to “leans Democratic.” Yet prediction markets may be leaning too far in favor of Democratic candidates in the final days of midterm campaigning, according to Brian Schaffner, a professor of political science at Tufts University with an expertise in public opinion.
Henrietta Treyz at Veda Partners said in a note on Monday that “contrary to conventional wisdom, I still expect Republicans to narrowly hang on to the U.S. Senate with a 50-50 split and Vice President J.D. Vance breaking any ties.” Republicans currently have a slim 219-214 majority in the House, along with a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
Prediction markets don’t have perfect track records. In the 2022 midterms, they suggested a red wave was approaching, but voters instead delivered a red ripple, as Republicans won just a slim House majority and didn’t take the Senate. A week ago, betting markets had Brazilian politician Flávio Bolsonaro as a strong favorite to win that country’s presidential election, but incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva actually won. **Related:**A bigger-than-expected win for Democrats in the midterms could deliver ‘short-lived weakness’ for stocks, strategists say Investors are waiting to see if this Election Day will provide clear outcomes in the battles for control of the House and the Senate, or if there will be a few days of vote-counting required — as happened with 2024’s contest to capture the House and 2022’s fight to run that chamber.
In 2020, the presidential election took days to call, and Senate control wasn’t determined until two months later. Many analysts have been predicting losses for the GOP because of voters’ frustrations with elevated prices for gasoline and other essentials. In addition, midterm elections have been bruising for most modern presidents.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
