Actor Jack Lowden has surged to the top of Polymarket’s next James Bond market, reaching 49 percent week, after Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman suggested the role has already been cast. The move signals that prediction-market traders increasingly see Lowden as the front-runner ahead of a potential announcement by the end of the year. Newsweek reached out to Lowden’s representatives via email for comment on Tuesday.
The James Bond franchise is entering a new chapter under Amazon MGM Studios, turning the question of who will inherit the tuxedo into a spectacle of its own. Now, a cryptic comment from one of the franchise’s most recognizable insiders has sent prediction markets moving—decisively in Lowden’s direction. The latest spark came from Oldman, who said that a decision had already been made behind closed doors.
They have made their choice, but they have not announced it yet,” the Golden Globe award winner told Deadline in an article published on September 7. The comment quickly ricocheted across social media. X user @advitwake captured the prevailing theory in a post with 469,000 views and 3,100 likes: “i think the Slow Horses cast knows something we don't.” Lowden’s role in Slow Horses, where he stars alongside Oldman in the Apple TV+ spy drama, gives the suggestion an added layer of intrigue.
The speculation also drew concern that Oldman’s comments—or the attention surrounding them—could complicate the casting process. A second called the post “dumb,” arguing that such “nudge-wink stuff” could potentially hurt Lowden’s chances. A third user noted another intriguing connection: Nina Gold serves as casting director on both Slow Horses and the Bond film.
On Polymarket, Lowden now leads the field at 49 percent, with roughly $132,000 in trading volume tied to his outcome. The “No Bond chosen” outcome sits second at about 16 percent, reflecting continued uncertainty over whether an actor will be officially named before the market’s deadline. Jack Barton ranks third at nearly 12 percent, an unexpected showing for the relative newcomer known for Heartstopper and Rogue Heroes.
Callum Turner follows at roughly 6 percent, while Richard Madden, Jonathan Bailey and Harris Dickinson sit in the low single digits. The market has generated more than $725,000 in total volume since opening on May 18 and is scheduled to resolve by the end of the year. Kalshi’s market is also now heavily tilted toward Lowden.
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