What seems obvious was made official Tuesday: National League Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski will start Game 1 of the World Series on Friday, the Milwaukee Brewers announced. The American League champion Tampa Bay Rays have not yet announced their Game 1 starter, but ace Drew Rasmussen lines up to pitch on normal rest. Misiorowski, 24, had a historic regular season, one in which he led baseball in ERA (1.80) and strikeouts (252), among other things.
It has been tough sledding in the postseason, however. Misiorowski failed to complete five innings in either of his starts because of high pitch counts. He threw 88 pitches in four innings in Game 1 of the NLDS, and 94 pitches in 4 ⅓ innings in Game 1 of the NLCS.
Misiorowski has not necessarily gotten hit hard in the postseason, nor is his fastball velocity down. He has not gotten as many swings and misses with his heater, though, largely because it's down some induced vertical break (IVB), which is the "life" on the pitch up in the zone. That has led to more foul balls, deeper counts, and shorter outings.
Here are the numbers on Misiorowski's fastball: Misiorowski's fastball has below-average IVB in general, though he makes up for it with sheer velocity and also his extension down the mound. He's 6-foot-7 and he averages a league-best 7.6 feet of extension. Misiorowski throws harder than everyone else and releases the ball further down the mound (and thus closer to the hitter) than everyone else too.
The difference between 14.7 inches of IVB and 13.4 inches is significant, though. It's the difference between below average and way below average, which makes it easier for the hitter to get the bat on the ball, even at that velocity. It's the difference between so many swings and misses during the regular season and so many foul balls in the postseason.
Why Misiorowski is missing some IVB is unclear. It could be fatigue, but if it is fatigue, it's not showing up in his velocity. It could be a mechanical issue, or maybe he's gotten caught up in the moment and is overthrowing.
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