Jalen Duren is missing media day Monday as his restricted free agent standoff with the Detroit Pistons remains unresolved. The deadline for Duren to accept his one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer is Thursday (Oct. 1), unless the Pistons agree to move it back. By virtue of making an All-NBA Team, Duren became eligible for a Rose Rule, 30% max contract with the Pistons that would have paid him $287 million over five years.
However, a disappointing postseason limited his market. For most of the offseason, the Pistons were believed to have offered $190 million over five years, but have recently increased that offer to $200 million, though the deal includes weight clauses. Duren has thus far rejected all offers, and according to ESPN, his representatives have made it clear that this is no longer about the money.
Duren feels disrespected, especially in light of the five-year, $155 million contract Ausar Thompson got from the team earlier this offseason. Should Duren accept the qualifying offer, he would become an unrestricted free agent next offseason and therefore be able to sign with any team. However, doing so based on Detroit's current offer would offer no financial gain.
Based on current cap projections, a four-year max deal in free agency from anyone besides the Pistons would pay Duren $189.2 million. If you include his $9.6 million qualifying offer, Duren would therefore stand to make up to $198.8 million or so over the next five seasons, which is less than what the Pistons are reportedly offering. Detroit's offer is presumably on the table now, whereas this approach would force Duren to play out this season and risk hurting his value through either injury or performance.
In other words, there's a lot of risk and nothing to gain financially. The only potential benefit to Duren -- who was a Third Team All-NBA selection last year but scuffled in the playoffs -- in this world would be the freedom to pick his next team. Typically, players seek that out to force their way from underwhelming teams onto contenders.
For Duren, that freedom would seemingly work in reverse. Duren is already on a 60-win Pistons team. The teams he has been linked to this offseason are the Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks, who won fewer games combined than the Pistons did a season ago.
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