Democrat James Talarico held a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new Trafalgar poll of the Texas Senate race, following his first public appearance in more than a week as the flu kept him off the campaign trail. Talarico, a state legislator, was up by more than 3 points in the poll of 1,086 likely voters in Texas, which was conducted from October 6 to 8. Talarico’s support stood at 47.1 percent, while 43.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for Paxton.
Libertarian Ted Brown received 1.8 percent support, while 7.6 percent were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Although Texas is historically a Republican-leaning state, polls show a tightening race in the Lone Star State in the November's midterm elections. Democrats believe Paxton's poor favorability numbers, as well as a favorable national environment fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating, could give Talarico a chance at flipping the Senate seat.
But Republicans hope the state’s partisanship will help push Paxton across the finish line. They have started to invest more money into the race to help give him a boost, and Trump has campaigned in Texas to help give Republicans a boost in the final stretch of the campaign. Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
Democrats must win races in more conservative states this year to flip the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They need to win four GOP-held seats to secure a majority, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided chamber. With few pickup opportunities available for traditionally competitive seats, Democrats have to turn to more conservative states like Texas to win a majority.
If they keep every seat they currently hold, Democrats need to win two seats in double-digit Trump states to win a majority. Polling has found a competitive race in Texas despite its conservative reputation. Talarico made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits (ACL) Music Festival on Friday after nearly two weeks of speculation about his whereabouts after a flu diagnosis kept him off of the trail in a critical stretch of the campaign.
His absence prompted trolling from Republicans such as Paxton, who shared “MISSING” posters of Talarico. "Hate to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, but James is still alive and meeting with voters at ACL today," campaign spokesman JT Ennis wrote on X Friday. Talarico disclosed on September 30 that he had been diagnosed with the flu.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
