James Talarico is polling better in his Senate race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton than Beto O'Rourke was at this point in the 2018 campaign, when he almost beat Senator Ted Cruz. Democrats have been hoping to win in Texas for years and have come up short in every race, but this year, ratings have the Senate race as a toss-up. If Talarico wins, it'll be the first time a Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas in nearly 40 years, and Cruz has warned that if Democrats win Texas, they can dominate the country for a century.
A new poll from SoCal Strategies found Talarico leading Paxton with 50 percent of the vote to Paxton's 45 percent. It’s a flip from June, when the same pollster found Paxton leading the race. Talarico’s seen major increases in the gap between his support and Paxton's among Hispanic voters, going from a 10 point gap in June to 38 point gap in the recent poll, and his lead over Paxton among independent voters went from 10 points to 45 points.
Twelve percent of Republicans also plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. "Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats. While six percent of respondents who said they backed Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the Senate race, the same can only be said of one percent of those who say they voted for [Vice President Kamala] Harris," the survey report said.
"To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today." Talarico's odds of winning the election have also flipped on market predictor websites. Polymarket gives Talarico a 53 percent chance of winning, a shift from the end of July when Paxton was expected to win with 56 percent odds. Kalshi gives Talarico similar odds, at 52 percent, a shift from a few days ago when Paxton was expected to win by a similar margin.
At this point in the 2018 campaign, Cruz was leading O'Rourke by about 3 points, according to a Real Clear Politics average of polls. Cruz would go on to beat O'Rourke by 2 points in the election. At the time, Cruz praised O'Rourke for the campaign that he won and admitted that it was a close race.
Now, Cruz is warning that Democrats could win. On a recent podcast, Cruz said Republicans "could lose Texas," and in July, he said he thinks Talarico has a “real chance.” “I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close.
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