Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race one week before Election Day, as Texans vote early in record numbers for a midterm. Talarico, an Austin state representative, leads Paxton, Texas' attorney general, in five of the six public polls released over the past week, though all five races are within each poll's margin of error.
The sixth poll, from Fox News, puts both candidates at 49 percent. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
A Talarico win in a state President Donald Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024 would also go a long way toward deciding which party controls the Senate next year. More than 4.5 million Texans had cast ballots by midday Monday, and analysts expect total turnout to reach about 10 million, up from 8.1 million in 2022. Talarico's edge in the final stretch of polling runs anywhere from zero to 5 points, and the newest surveys put it at 2 points or less.
The most recent, from ActiVote, found Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent among 400 likely voters surveyed October 17 to 21. Verasight, polling for VoteHub from October 1 to 20, had him up 48 percent to 45 percent among 601 likely voters. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken October 17 to 19, put Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
When undecided voters were pushed to choose, the result was 49 percent to 48 percent, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent. Emerson's Spencer Kimball said Talarico's support has inched up by about a point a month since August, and that Paxton would likely gain if Brown's backers, mostly independents and Republicans, drift away before Election Day. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from October 15 to 19 found the two candidates tied at 49 percent among 1,398 likely voters.
Fox's previous Texas survey, released October 1, had Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent. Texas Public Opinion Research, a group run by Democrat Luke Warford, found Talarico ahead 51 percent to 47 percent among 969 likely voters from October 15 to 18, a lead one point narrower than its September poll. The widest margin came from a survey conducted by the Cook Political Report, run jointly by the Democratic firm New River Strategies and the Republican firm GS Strategy Group.
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