Japan views the United States as a necessary partner, but has low confidence it will become “a better ally” after U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term ends, according to a new study. Just 26% of Japanese surveyed said that the U.S. will improve as an ally post-Trump, compared with 45% of Australians and 46% of Americans, according to the study by the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Center.
The researchers polled more than 1,000 people from countries that make up “the Quad” security grouping — Japan, the U.S., Australia and India. Trump’s transactional approach to U.S. alliances and his freewheeling use of tariffs or the threat of them has tested diplomatic ties. Around 53% of Japanese surveyed said Trump’s second term has been a negative for Japan, with just 8% viewing it positively for the country.
Despite this, the countries surveyed still characterize their relations with the U.S. overall as very important, with 36% of Japanese respondents feeling that the alliance with the U.S. is more necessary than ever. The same sentiment was voiced by 44% of Indians and 49% of Australians. But while the U.S. relationship is viewed as vital, in Japan, confidence in the country as a protective force has been dented.
While in 2023, 77% of Japanese surveyed felt confident that the United States would come to their country’s aid if they were attacked by China, that figure sank to 60% in this year’s survey. Tokyo’s ties with Beijing have deteriorated since November, when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly commented about Japan intervening militarily in the event of an attack on Taiwan by China. Despite this, there was a slight decline in the belief among Japanese that an armed conflict with China will occur within the next 10 years.
A majority in Japan, 66%, view China as a danger while 28% see it as an economic partner, with a similar picture among Americans (55% danger, 43% economic partner), and Indians (59% danger, 43% economic partner). Australia, however, stands in stark contrast, with 64% viewing China more as an economic partner, while 47% consider it a threat. Americans were also more critical of their government’s “handling” of China, being the largest Quad member to characterize it as “too aggressive,” with 20% responding in this way.
Only 4% of Australians and 7% of Japanese felt the same way about their respective governments’ approaches.
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