Japan’s nuclear revival is facing fresh setbacks after a summer of scandals and regulatory hurdles delayed reactor restarts, threatening the country’s plans to expand atomic power as electricity demand and energy costs rise. BloombergNEF expects nine reactors totaling 9.6 gigawatts of power to restart through 2040, down from a previous outlook of 11 units. Japan will fall at least 11.7 gigawatts short of its 2040 target of generating 35 gigawatts of electricity from nuclear, BNEF said.
The weaker outlook comes after Chubu Electric Power withdrew applications to restart two units at its Hamaoka nuclear plant in Shizuoka Prefecture after being accused of fabricating seismic data for the facility. Hokkaido Electric Power’s effort to restart its reactor is also facing delays after a fatal accident during construction of a seawall at its Tomari nuclear plant and the rejection of proposed safety measures by regulators. BNEF subsequently pushed its forecast for the restart of Tomari No. 3 back a year to 2028.
Japan has been pushing for the resumption of reactors shut in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, in order to curb a reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. The delays threaten to keep power prices elevated and expose the country to volatile liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal markets, just as the artificial intelligence boom is expected to lift electricity demand. Japan’s strict regulatory regime and pockets of local opposition mean only 15 of the nation’s 33 operable reactors are currently online.
The problems in Hokkaido jeopardize its plan to become a major data-center hub, as electricity demand there is forecast to grow faster than any other part of Japan, according to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. The No. 3 unit at Tomari, Hokkaido’s only operable nuclear power plant, could meet as much as a third of the island’s power demand if restarted, according to BNEF. Japan’s government set a goal in June to replace as many as 14 retiring reactors with new units by the 2050s.
The country is aiming for about 20% of its power mix to come from nuclear energy by 2040, compared to 9% today, but still well below almost a third before the Fukushima disaster.
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