The Japan Meteorological Agency plans to make longer-term weather forecasts more detailed and accurate, to help people and businesses better prepare for extreme weather events that are becoming more frequent. An expert panel convened by the agency recently compiled a report on improving weather forecasts, proposing that, with advances in climate data observations and simulations, it is possible and desirable to extend detailed forecasting from the current five days to two weeks. The JMA’s daily forecasts include the day’s weather, high and low temperatures, chance of rain and the forecasts’ confidence levels.
The new report also proposed extending from five days to two weeks the period for which the agency provides information on the likelihood of warning-level heavy rain and snow. The agency said it will aim to make the updates to forecasting operations — the first in three decades — by 2030. Currently, the JMA indicates whether temperatures are expected to be “higher” or “lower” than the 30-year average.
With global warming, temperature forecasts are most often described as “higher than normal.” Such wording does not match people’s actual experiences or meet their needs, the report said. The agency said the updates will not only help people better prepare for disasters and heatstroke but also aid businesses in planning and adjusting manufacturing and transport schedules as well as maintaining a stable power supply.
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