Vice President JD Vance leads a hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential primary with 32 percent, ahead of Donald Trump Jr. at 19 percent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 12 percent. The McLaughlin & Associates findings offer an early look at the competition to inherit President Donald Trump’s political coalition, even though the next presidential election remains more than two years away. Republican voters have not settled on a successor, but Vance starts with the widest support across the party’s principal demographic and ideological groups, according to this latest poll.
No candidate has formally entered the 2028 contest, yet early polling can reveal which politicians begin with durable name recognition and an identifiable partisan base. Vance benefits from serving as vice president, while Trump Jr.’s latest improvement suggests that the contest for voters most closely aligned with the president is not settled. McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 1,000 likely general-election voters nationally from August 18 to 24.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, with the Republican primary question based on 433 respondents. Vance’s 32 percent is below his series high of 43 percent in April 2025. His support has otherwise remained mostly in the 30s since March of that year, suggesting a substantial starting constituency but no commanding majority.
Trump Jr. has recovered from 12 percent in May 2026 to 19 percent in August. He was as high as 26 percent in December 2025, when he came within eight points of Vance. Rubio’s latest decline interrupts a longer rise.
After polling mainly in low single digits through 2025, he reached 10 percent in March 2026 and peaked at 15 percent between May and July. Vance receives 38 percent among conservatives, compared with 25 percent among moderates and 11 percent among liberals in the Republican sample. He also takes 35 percent among respondents who voted for Trump in 2024.
His support is balanced by sex, standing at 32 percent among men and 33 percent among women. Age creates a wider divide: 38 percent of voters over 55 choose him, against 27 percent of those under 55. Trump Jr. also performs better among older voters, drawing 25 percent from the over-55 group and 12 percent from younger respondents.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
