Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a 7-point lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins in the latest poll of the Georgia Senate race, a key race in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, which Democrats must defend if they hope to take control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms. The Peach State has become firmly purple in recent years, backing Trump in 2016 and 2024 while backing President Joe Biden in 2020. Ossoff has proven to be a strong Democrat in the state and has been floated as a potential presidential contender as soon as 2028.
The new InsiderAdvantage poll released on Tuesday found 50 percent of Georgia voters surveyed said they would back Ossoff in November, while 43 percent said they plan to vote for Collins, a sitting representative from Georgia's 10th District. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about how they would vote in the general election. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from August 16 to August 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
It was first reported by James Magazine, a statewide political publication in Georgia. The Sabato Crystal Ball rates the race as "Likely Democrat" while both the Cook Political Report and the Fox News Senate Forecast rate the race as "Lean Democrat." Newsweek reached out to the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email. Ossoff, who first entered office in 2021, has built up a lead over Collins in the battleground state, but Republicans still view the race as one of their top flip opportunities in the midterms, along with Michigan, another state that was won by Trump in 2016 and 2024.
The latest poll from AARP found Ossoff up 9 points over Collins, 52 percent to 43 percent. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 1,060 likely voters from July 13 to July 16, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins’ 42.9 percent.
It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A poll for Fox News put Ossoff's support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a whopping 13-point margin. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to June 27.
Ossoff’s chances of winning have expanded over the past month in prediction markets. On Wednesday, he had a 91.3 percent chance of winning, up from 87 percent chance one month earlier, on Kalshi. On Polymarket, his chances of beating Collins stood at 94 percent, up from 86 percent one month earlier.
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