Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek locked in a statistical dead heat. Out of six polls conducted during October and early November that Newsweek reviewed, neither candidate led by more than 3 percentage points. Turek held a 3-point advantage early last month, while also leading by 1 point in two polls and 2 points in another.
Hinson, meanwhile, held a 2-point lead in two separate surveys. All leads fell within the polls' margins of error. Iowa’s Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst has ended up becoming one of this year’s most competitive, despite the Hawkeye State voting for the GOP in Senate elections since 2008.
Republicans are trying to hold onto their seats in the state, with other high-stakes contests including the governor's office and three competitive House districts. Democrats see the race as a rare opportunity in the agricultural heartland, capitalizing on voter frustration over economic strains stemming from President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and rising domestic fuel prices tied to the war in Iran—pressures that have hit Iowa farmers particularly hard. The Cook Political Report lists the race as a “toss-up” in Iowa, which has historically backed presidential candidates from both political parties.
Trump won Iowa the last three election cycles, but before that, former President Barack Obama won Iowa twice. Both candidates have made bipartisan appeals to swing voters. Turek has described himself as a “proud moderate” and praised Trump’s handling of border security.
Hinson, who has Trump's endorsement, has insisted she would not hesitate to challenge the president if necessary for her state. In one of her most notable departures from Trump and her own past voting record, Hinson last month called for an “immediate end” to the conflict in Iran, stating that Iowans were being “squeezed” economically as a result of the war. Newsweek contacted Turek and Hinson, via email on Monday, for comment.
Turek’s 3-percentage point lead was found last month by a Marist University poll that surveyed 1,100 likely voters between October 8 to 11. For Turek, 48 percent said they would support him while 45 percent said they'd supported Hinson. The survey's margin of error of +/- 6.6 percentage points.
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