Kalshi, the popular prediction market website, is partnering with The Weather Company, which will see odds data added to forecasts among a host of other changes, the company announced Thursday. Bettors can use Kalshi to place wagers on nearly every aspect of life, from the outcome of a sporting event or election to what President Donald Trump will say during an address — and even the weather forecast. Kalshi’s partnership with The Weather Company, which runs weather.com and the Weather Channel app, will allow people to bet on the highest temperature in a city on a given day as well as other weather trends.
The partnership will also allow The Weather Company to use Kalshi’s probability data across its app and website, displaying trades to show users how markets are pricing weather risk. Weather trading has become an increasingly popular topic on prediction markets such as Kalshi and its competitor, Polymarket. The total volume for Kalshi’s climate and weather vertical has grown 500 percent year over year, and will likely bring in $1.1 billion in trading volume this year, the company said.
We’re proud to partner with the world’s most respected brand in weather to help people make sense of the world around them,” Brackett added. These markets allow users to place bets on hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes and other catastrophic events — raising concern from some who criticize the ability to turn a natural disaster into financial gain. For example, a bet on a prediction market about a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in Florida that trades at 30 cents means that traders see about a 30 percent chance of the event happening, according to NerdWallet.
While these bets may seem like a way to predict the weather, the number comes from people buying or selling contracts — a term for the wager — not from the actual weather forecast. Weather can be difficult to bet on because conditions can change at the drop of a hat. Betting on the weather and natural disasters also raises ethical questions.
Two times this past April, the temperature reading at Charles De Gaulle Airport in Paris, France, jumped without explanation. These instances happened at the same time as two bets with massive winnings of $14,000 and $21,000 were placed on Polymarket. Several crypto outlets and trader publications speculated that a hairdryer or other device could have been used to create a false temperature reading at the temperature sensor at the airport.
However, the claims remain unverified. These incidents have raised questions among critics about the potential for more nefarious tampering. Some worry that wildfire markets could lead bettors to commit arson or otherwise interfere with efforts to contain a fire, just to make a quick buck.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
