Exit polls from Latvia's parliamentary election published Saturday evening favoured Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' party, suggesting the country will maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. But populist parties also had a good night after an election campaign dominated by fears over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living at home. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List party was in the lead with 35.6 percent, according to exit polls published by public media LSM.
"It's not the end still, but its higher than expected," Kulbergs told journalists following the announcement. "That means people truly want change," he added, which he said meant "economic growth" and "a future for (Latvia's) children". Kulbergs only assumed the post of prime minister in May.
But his coalition, which pre-election polling had suggested would weaken, will probably not survive in its current form. One coalition partner, the Union of Greens and Farmers, appeared to have finished with only 3.7 percent – below the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. That, and the projected results from other other coalition parties, suggest Kulbergs will have to form a new ruling coalition.
While exit polls are usually reliable, voter reluctance to admit support for more radical parties may mean the populist parties perform better than anticipated. "I do believe that the biggest increase (of the) actual results, compared to the exit polls, will be to the... Russian-speaking electorate's supported parties, which are the Sovereign Power and Latvia First," Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, told AFP.
Sigita Struberga, secretary general of Latvian transatlantic association LATO, said it was too early to accurately predict the shape of any future coalition. "We really need to wait for (the) real percentage, which might be slightly different from what we see at this point," she told AFP. Security questions were the main topic during the campaign in Latvia, an EU and NATO member state sitting on the eastern flank of both blocs.
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