The longtime ruby-red Senate seat in South Carolina has shifted toward Democrats in updated ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the latest signal that the election has become more competitive than expected in the 2026 midterms. The forecaster shifted the race from Safe to Likely Republican, bringing it into the electoral battleground as Democrats hope that President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating gives them a chance to compete in states once thought unattainable. South Carolina, which backed Trump by 18 points in the 2024 election, is not ordinarily viewed as a competitive seat, but recent polls point to a close race between Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democratic hopeful Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who ran for Congress in 2022.
Graham was appointed to the Senate seat following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, in July. Graham was up for reelection this year and had served as a Senator for more than 20 years. Darline Graham, with the endorsement of Trump, successfully won a quick primary to replace her brother on the ballot.
The shift from Sabato comes as the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, is investing $5 million in South Carolina to give Graham a boost against Andrews in the final weeks of the campaign, according to a report from the . Trump is also expected to visit the state in the coming weeks, according to the report. Democrats think the political landscape will allow them to compete in more conservative states this year as Trump's approval rating has fallen to record lows in recent polls due to voter frustration with the economy, Iran war and inflation.
Historically, the president's party loses seats in the midterms and Democrats have sought to make this year's election a referendum on Trump's policies. South Carolina has not traditionally been a top target for Democrats, but a flurry of recent polls suggest the race could become close. Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced the shift in South Carolina’s Senate race on Tuesday.
Darline Graham (R) only nominally ahead of physician Annie Andrews (D), and both President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) are set to campaign in the state, per the New York Times,” analysts J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik wrote in the update. Graham “should be fine in the end,” and should ultimately be helped by the baseline partisanship of the state, they wrote.
The Cook Political Report also classifies the race as Likely Republican. Newsweek reached out to the Andrews and Graham campaigns for comment via email. Recent polling has given Graham a narrow lead in the race.
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