Millions of Social Security beneficiaries will get a major new clue about their 2027 benefit increase in less than a week. Fresh inflation data for the month of August will be released on September 11, and the figures will be the second-to-last piece of data needed to calculate next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). While the official 2027 COLA will not be announced until October 14, experts say the September 11 update should provide one of the clearest indications yet of how large beneficiaries' increase could be.
Current projections from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) place the 2027 COLA at approximately 3.6 percent, higher than the 2.8 percent adjustment retirees received for 2026. Social Security's annual COLA affects more than 70 million Americans who receive retirement, disability, or Supplemental Security Income benefits. The adjustment is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation and preserve seniors’ purchasing power as consumer prices rise.
For many retirees who depend heavily on monthly Social Security checks, even a small change in the COLA percentage can translate into hundreds of dollars over the course of a year. September 11 is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its August Consumer Price Index data. Social Security COLAs are calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Specifically, the Social Security Administration compares average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next. July, August and September inflation figures are all required to complete the formula. Because July's data is already available, the release of August inflation figures will mean five of the six required data points are known.
That should allow forecasters to generate a COLA estimate that is much closer to the final number than earlier projections. If August inflation comes in hotter than expected, forecasts for the 2027 COLA could rise above the current 3.6 percent estimate. However, if inflation continues to cool, projections could move lower.
While the final figure remains uncertain, a 3.6 percent increase would be noticeably larger than this year's adjustment. According to The Motley Fool, a 3.6 percent COLA would increase the average monthly retirement benefit of about $2,086 to approximately $2,161 per month, an increase of roughly $75 monthly before any Medicare premium deductions. For beneficiaries, however, experts caution that a larger COLA is not necessarily a sign of improving financial conditions.
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