Democrats are leading in several Senate and gubernatorial races in states President Donald Trump carried in both 2020 and 2024, according to recent polling released less than two months before the 2026 midterm elections. The competitive contests in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Texas are emerging as key tests of the political climate during Trump's second term, which has seen his approval rating slip amid concerns over the economy, tariff policies, and the ongoing Iran war. Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to capitalize on the political climate, which includes recent Democratic wins and overperformance, and the fact that historically the party not in the White House performs better in the midterms, to make inroads in states Trump previously won.
On Thursday, forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three gubernatorial contests toward Democrats, including races in Iowa and Alaska, states Trump won in 2020 and 2024. Other forecasters, like Cook Political Report, have rated the races as tossups as Democratic candidates continue to post competitive polling numbers ahead of November. With exactly two months until Election Day on November 3, the competitive races could help shape the balance of power in Washington and state capitals alike, as Democrats seek to erode Republican gains in some of Trump's strongest states.
Trump won 25 states in the 2020 presidential election and 31 in 2024. In 2020, Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden, who won 306 Electoral College votes to Trump's 232. Four years later, Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to the vice president's 226 and reclaiming the White House.
Trump's 2024 victory was aided by flipping six states that Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The remaining 25 states voted for Trump in both elections and have generally formed the Republican Party's reliable presidential strongholds. Republicans also regained control of the Senate in 2024, flipping Democratic-held seats and securing a majority in the chamber, while maintaining control of the House of Representatives.
At the state level, Republicans entered 2025 holding a majority of governorships nationwide. The midterms are widely viewed as a key test of Trump's standing with voters since returning to office, as well as the political weight of his endorsements in competitive races. Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with former President Barack Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012.
But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, who has led the state since 2017, is not seeking reelection. The last time a Democrat won Iowa’s governorship was in 2006, when Chet Culver was elected.
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